hunterbishop.com

Sen. Daniel Akaka will eke out a victory against challenger Ed Case in September's Democratic primary, said Rick Castberg, professor of political science at the University of Hawaii at Hilo (photo at right).

Castberg told the East Hawaii Kiwanis Club on Friday: "Face it,  Case is really a Republican."

One caveat could be what Castberg called an "undercurrent of  resentment" regarding the Akaka Bill. Castberg said some voters may be uncomfortable speaking out against the bill, but their sentiments could show up at the ballot box. Another prediction-buster could be a large turnout among younger voters and there is still plenty of time for any number of unforeseen events to have an effect on the race, Castberg said.

Case is pressing hard for debates but that could cut both ways for the challenger. Akaka, like most incumbents, clearly benefits from avoiding face-to-face debate. But if he does agree,  Case would have to be very careful not to appear to bully or beat up on the 81-year-old incumbent since respect for elders is still a strong motivating force in Hawaii. 

Polls are very close but most were conducted before Vietnam War vet, former POW and motivational speaker Jerry Coffee from Oahu entered the Republican primary for the Senate seat, which will probably keep most  potential GOP cross-over voters for Case in the party fold. (I would add that that GOP primary race between Quentin Kawananakoa and Bob Hogue for the District 2 Congressional seat being vacated by Case may do the same thing.)

Akaka also enjoys a two-and-a-half-to-one advantage in fundraising. 

"My hunch is that Akaka will win the race," Castberg said. "If the race stays clean it will be close but Akaka will win."